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2. Alex Rodriguez- Overall power was down last year, but was still able to maintain a strong HR/F ratio despite hip injury. He even managed to continue streak of double digit stolen bases. 3. Joe Mauer- Even a regression in home runs that I am projecting will not prevent him from earning top five value. A batting average well over .300 in over 500 at-bats from the catcher spot is extraordinarily valuable. Not to mention that his run and RBI totals are boosted from the additional playing time he receives over most others at the position. 4. Miguel Cabrera- That batting average is worth a lot and he has hit at least .320 in four of the last five seasons. It is scary to think he will still only be 27 this year. 5. Ryan Howard- Power has been at a premium for the last couple of season as home runs across leagues have been down. Howard has hit 45+ home runs and knocked in at least 136 runs in his first four full Major League seasons. HR/F dropped below 30% mark for first time in his career, which could foreshadow a power decline or simply be a blip and mean nothing. Batting average is safe, as 2008’s low (for Howard).289 BABIP appears to be the fluke. 6. Tim Lincecum- Only concern, as usual, is his run support. 7. David Wright- 26 year olds don’t just suddenly lose all their power. It was not just Citi Field either, as he hit the same number of home runs at home as away. Call it a gut feeling or simply experience seeing how players typically follow up on mysterious down years, but I expect nearly a full rebound. And yes, the BABIP will come down, but his contact rate will improve which should offset it, leading to a similar average. 8. Ryan Braun- Big loss of fly balls contributed to home run decline, despite a HR/FB ratio that was slightly higher than 2008. We will have to see if that reverses. BABIP has been erratic, so batting average is tough to peg. At just 26 years of age, he still has big upside if everything falls right. 9. Mark Teixeira- Loved new Yankees Stadium, posting a 1.014 OPS at home versus an .882 mark away, while hitting 24 of his 39 home runs at the park as well. Consistent skills in a great lineup and if “safe” really existed, Teix would be one of the safest investments. 10. Carl Crawford- All he needed was better health to prove that 2008 was just a flukey down year marred by injuries. At a good age to experience a power spike, but he does not even need to in order to hold top 10 value. Trackback(0)
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The decline in steals is major reason why he falls out of the top 10. 2009 was the first season his Speed Index was below 100 as well, which suggests he may not see a rebound in the category. HR/F regressed from inflated 2008 level as expected, so 30 home runs might be difficult and a .384 BABIP propped up his average, so that will fall.
Fielder I have valued 14th. Expect some regression from last year, can't project another 140 RBIs! BABIP was a career high, not sure that could be repeated.