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Behind The Plate Blog
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Written by Christopher Mulligan
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Thursday, 13 May 2010 01:11 |
It is never too early to look to the future. As fantasy owners, we always are on the lookout for the next young phenom. As fans of our teams, we look for better days ahead. As pure baseball fans, we enjoy seeing young players excel.
The objective here is to try to determine which team possesses the best collection of prospects. That is a difficult task for a study that tends to be extremely subjective. Some opinions are unanimous, some are polar opposites. The bottom line is: it’s fun to project. |
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Behind The Plate Blog
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Tuesday, 10 March 2009 22:53 |
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When you draft Albert Pujols in the first round, you are probably thinking you are drafting him for his incredible capacity to hit for a high batting average and for power. When you draft Carlos Beltran you are influenced by his great combination of power and speed. However, these players are being drafted for more than just their raw numbers; it is also their ability to produce these raw numbers at a consistent level year in, year out. The same can be said for all of the other elite players that go within the first two rounds of the draft. The opposite is true for the meddling mid-round picks. Players that come out of nowhere like Ryan Ludwick do not immediately catapult themselves into the top 20 players drafted because they have not proven that they can do it consistently. The same goes for guys like Aubrey Huff who sometimes decide they want to crush the ball for a year so they can take the next one off. |
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Behind The Plate Blog
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Monday, 09 March 2009 17:33 |
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As a continuation of my previous article, I’ll now look at the players with the greatest relative value in regard to their projected 2009 totals. To briefly refresh your memory, when I say “greatest relative value,” I’m talking about the tiers of players that give you the most value in each of the five offensive point-getting categories when compared to similar tiers in the other categories. For example, using the results from my previous article, the player with the 7th best stolen base total will bring you more value than the player with the 7th best homerun total, while the 23rd best homerun total would conversely be more valuable than that comparable stolen base total, assuming everything else is equal. If you’re lost on this concept, I encourage you to read through my previous article and if it still doesn’t make any sense, just let me know. |
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Behind The Plate Blog
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Friday, 27 February 2009 00:24 |
I have titled today’s article after the catch phrase from a popular board game because A) it is not at all clever, and B) the way Bradley has been treated in mock drafts this year is not a game. Despite leading the American League in OPS last year, Bradley has seen his stock plummet to the bottom of the ocean like the Destroyer after three quick strikes (OK that one was pretty clever, but it is the last one I swear). As a result his ADP thus far is 143. The three most common arguments are that he is injury plagued and will not give you more than 450 AB’s, he is a head-case who will get suspended and cost you AB’s, and he has left the launching pad in Texas so his numbers will drop. I am not buddies with his psychiatrist or family doctor so I cannot tell you for sure that he is in the clear with regards to these first two categories, but I can suggest some strategies to cope with the associated problems. As for the transition to Wrigley, I think Milton will be just fine.
The Numbers
Milton Bradley can flat out mash the baseball. Since his breakout season in 2003, Bradley has put up seasonal OPS+ figures of 147,108, 118, 114, 153, and 163. During the same time period, Andruw Jones competed in 3 All-Star games, won a Silver Slugger, and was a fantasy darling... all while compiling OPS+ numbers of 117, 112, 136, 126, 88, and 34. Even if we pretend last year did not happen for Jones, Bradley blows him out of the water in per plate appearance production. So what if last year’s 22 HR and 77 RBI were career highs? The fact is this guy is a natural hitter and should be given every opportunity to succeed in Chicago.
The Contingency Plan
In no way am I here to defend Bradley’s injury history or what goes on inside his head and I accept that he will miss his fair share of games. However, as an astute manager you can use this to your advantage. Because his playing time is limited he is undervalued. This allows you to grab a guy with the per plate appearance production of a 4th round pick in the 12th. If you carry a 4th OF on your roster to supplement the time Bradley misses you can still create a roster slot that gives you 5th round production for the cost of say an 11th rounder and a 12th rounder. Don’t believe me? Take a look at the following chart, where I combine the stats of Bradley and Diamondbacks OF Conor Jackson to equal the production of 5th round pick Nate McLouth.
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Bradley |
Jackson |
TOTAL |
McLouth |
| AB |
400 |
200 |
600 |
597 |
| BA |
.295 |
.300 |
.297 |
.276 |
| HR |
20 |
8 |
28 |
26 |
| R |
70 |
30 |
100 |
113 |
| RBI |
70 |
30 |
100 |
94 |
| SB |
5 |
4 |
9 |
23 |
It will take another extraordinary season by McLouth (especially without Jason Bay) to equal the numbers of my tandem. All this strategy takes is a little dedication to make sure you know when Bradley is hurt to get him out of the line-up and a willingness to sacrifice that final roster spot, which is often not used to its full potential anyways.
The Mythical Land of Home Runs
For some reason, whenever a player joins the Rangers everyone assumes that he will magically turn into a home run mashing monster. While the Ballpark in Arlington is certainly one of the more hitter-friendly fields in the game, the awful pitching staffs assembled by the Rangers front office have contributed a lot to this reputation. You may even be surprised that when examining park factors over the past three seasons, Wrigley Field in Chicago has actually been friendlier to sluggers than the Ballpark in Arlington. The following chart demonstrates the Runs, HR, and OPS park factors for the fields of the Cubs, Rangers and Padres, as well as the league rankings in brackets.
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RUNS |
HR |
OPS |
| Cubs |
110 (T-3rd) |
117 (6th) |
104 (T-4th) |
| Rangers |
105 (8th) |
108 (T-10th) |
103 (T-6th) |
| Padres |
81 (30th) |
81 (T-27th) |
890 (30th) |
I included San Diego to prove that Bradley can also hit well in a pitcher’s park, as he put up a stellar line of .313/.414/.590 with the Padres in 2007 before having his ACL torn by Bud Black.
Game Over*
I put out an open challenge for anyone to contend the logic of my argument. I believe it is relatively sound as Bradley has proven that he can hit in any ballpark, and is not a product of the exaggeration of Arlington. I was also conservative in my estimates for the predicted statistics I applied to Bradley and Jackson. I even put them up against fair competition. Originally, I had Corey Hart as the 5th rounder I was comparing my duo to. The numbers were very lopsided. There is no way Hart should even be mentioned in the same breath as McLouth. Props to John Dorhauer for picking this up in an article on our old site a couple of weeks ago. My only regret is that I probably should have used a lesser player than Jackson as Bradley’s platoon partner because he is also undervalued but that is a story for another day.
*You cannot blame me if Bradley gets suspended for assaulting a fan with a Gatorade cooler; that is not part of the deal.
If Milton Bradley can play 130 games, what are your expectations? Will he prove to be better than his ADP suggests?
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Behind The Plate Blog
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Thursday, 05 March 2009 00:00 |
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In a recent article I wrote that is currently available on the Premium portion of fantasypros911.com, I took an in-depth look at the five offensive point-getting categories for Roto 5x5 leagues to determine which had the most value. Specifically, I addressed the different performance-level tiers at each category to see where each carried the greatest relative value when compared to the others at that tier. All of these findings were of a theoretical nature, though, and they do not do us much good in the realm of fantasy baseball without the context of practical application. By looking at actual players and their stats from last year with this new strategy in mind, we can get a sense of how one might go about applying this concept of relative value for your fantasy leagues. |
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Behind The Plate Blog
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Written by Christopher Mulligan
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Saturday, 21 February 2009 19:51 |
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If you've noticed, I don't spend a lot of time discussing my sleepers or sleepers in general. I leave that up to the other highly qualified writers on this site. But I've gotten emails from readers asking me who my sleepers are so I've decided to throw them at you all at once with my All-Sleeper Team.
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Behind The Plate Blog
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Written by Christopher Mulligan
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Friday, 17 October 2008 00:00 |
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The Last Real Season by Mike Shropshire is a hilarious look back at the 1975 MLB season. Shropshire, a former Texas Rangers beat writer, loads this book full of outrageous stories of afro donning, leisure suit wearing ball players as well as some laugh out loud personal adventures while covering the Rangers. This book is a tale of baseball before the free agency boom when the average player's salary was a measly $27,600, mere pocket change for today's players. In that sense, Shropshire claims the players of the '70s were more like your neighbor than a superstar and had more fun than today's millionaires. |
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Behind The Plate Blog
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Written by Christopher Mulligan
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Thursday, 16 October 2008 00:00 |
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We've all heard the stories about Josh Hamilton. The former number one draft pick of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. The best high school player ever. The best thing since Mickey Mantle. Drug addict. |
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The Rangers still owe...
Re: Who do you pick?
Re: Who do you pick?
